Updated: Aug 14, 2024 08:27 AM
The Wednesday 6am update on Tropical Storm Ernesto, which is growing into a hurricane as it heads on a direct course for Bermuda (Photograph courtesy of the Bermuda Weather Service)
Tropical Storm Ernesto has been upgraded as a threat to Bermuda.
According to the latest update from the Bermuda Weather Service, the closest point of approach in the next 72 hours is expected to be 48 miles to the southwest of the island when the weather system will have gained Category 2 hurricane force.
As of 6am, Ernesto had just cleared the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, moving northwesterly at 16mph and packing winds of 70mph with gusts to 86mph.
Forecasters project the storm will become a Category 1 hurricane by this afternoon before shifting northeast to make a beeline for Bermuda — intermittently growing in strength to Category 3 by Friday afternoon and then weakening as it bears down on the island.
The Emergency Measures Organisation executive will convene this morning to assess the latest developments.
Residents were urged yesterday to intensify their storm preparations as a weather system unrelated to Ernesto dropped inches of rain on the island through the day and into the evening.
A government spokesman said: “The Bermuda Government, through the Emergency Measures Organisation, continues to closely monitor Tropical Storm Ernesto, which has strengthened since the last update and is expected to approach Bermuda as a Category 2 hurricane by early Saturday morning.
“All residents are urged to accelerate their storm preparations considering this development.
“A weather front from the US East Coast is expected to move over Bermuda tonight, bringing torrential rainfall and intermittent showers over the next few days due to the system stalling over the island.”
He added that the weather front was unrelated to Ernesto “but could potentially hamper hurricane preparations”.
The spokesman added: “Residents are, therefore, urged to get ready for the impending hurricane as soon as possible.”
Ernesto was likely to bring “impacts to Bermuda later this week and interests there should monitor the progress of the system,” the US-based NHC said earlier.
BMS iVision and the Verisk Respond product show Ernesto's forecasted wind swath over the next five days
Michael Weeks, the Minister of National Security, said: “Residents need to prepare now before conditions worsen. Time is of the essence. Now is not the time for complacency.
“Residents must not underestimate Ernesto’s potential impact. With the combination of the unrelated weather front and the impending hurricane, it is crucial that everyone remains prepared and follows official guidance.
“I urge everyone to ensure they have adequate hurricane supplies, including tarpaulins, rope, water, batteries, portable power banks, food and medicine.
“These items are critical for weathering the storm and its aftermath."
In its latest update, the NHC advised that tropical storm conditions would continue over the Leeward Islands and spread west to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
It warned that heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in the Caribbean countries.
AccuWeather warned that Bermuda should prepare for “direct hurricane impacts” this weekend.
Its meteorologists said that Bermuda could face four to eight inches of rainfall, which could lead to flooding, and wind gusts could reach more than 100mph.
After passing over Bermuda, Ernesto is expected to turn to Newfoundland, Canada, by next week.
Tropical Storm Ernesto is the fifth named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, following Hurricane Beryl, Hurricane Debby, Tropical Storm Alberto and Tropical Storm Chris.
Forecasters at Colorado State University warned that Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, which battered the Caribbean recently, was a “likely harbinger” of a hyperactive season fuelled by warmer-than-average waters.
The CSU originally predicted 23 named storms for the 2024, which started on June 1, including 11 hurricanes, five of which were expected to reach at least Category 3 strength.
However, in a revised forecast released by the CSU, it predicted 25 named storms, including 12 hurricanes, half of which would become major hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the modern average of about 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The NHC forecast an 85 per cent chance of a busier-than-average season with between 17 and 25 named storms, while Britain’s Met Office forecast 22 named storms during the season.
The track of Tropical Storm Ernesto according to the weather website Windy.co.
