Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (2024)

FAQs

What is convective outlook? ›

Convective Outlook

(sometimes called AC) - A forecast containing the area(s) of expected thunderstorm occurrence and expected severity over the contiguous United States, issued several times daily by the SPC.

Description: This product depicts the area where the forecaster expects convection or severe convection to occur during the first 24-hour period. The product denotes the areas that have a marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, or high risk of severe thunderstorms during the period.

AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno stated “when it comes to severe weather in May, the atmosphere doesn't hold anything back." AccuWeather predicts anywhere from 1,250 to 1,375 tornadoes across the country in 2024. That's a downturn from the 1,423 reported in 2023.

Those levels from 1 to 5 respectively are MARGINAL, SLIGHT, ENHANCED, MODERATE, and HIGH. An area under a MARGINAL risk for severe weather will feature a threat of isolated severe weather.

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center puts Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto, Roseville and Elk Grove at the highest risk — 5% — of getting hit by a tornado Monday, with Concord, Vallejo, Antioch, Fairfield, Vacaville and Livermore at a 2% risk.

The Convective Outlook is issued 5 times daily: at 06Z (the initial day-1 outlook, valid 12Z that day until 12Z the following day), 13Z and 1630Z (the "morning updates," valid until 12Z the next day), 20Z (the "afternoon update," valid until 12Z the next day), and the 01Z (the "evening update," valid until 12Z the ...

On May 20, 2013, an extremely powerful tornado destroyed a huge part of Moore, Oklahoma. Eleven years later, it remains the most recent tornado to be rated EF5, the strongest possible rating on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The 11-year gap is the longest since official U.S. records began in 1950.

SPC severe weather outlooks forecast events from organized convection (e.g., supercells, squall lines, and multicell thunderstorm complexes), most capable of damage and injury from tornadoes, damaging winds, or large hail.

Tornado Alley is a part of the central United States with a unique combination of geographic and meteorological factors that make it more susceptible to tornadoes. This area encompasses much of northern Texas northward through Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri and parts of Louisiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and eastern Colorado.

Texas leads the nation in the number of tornadoes that occur each year on average, followed by Kansas. Texas leads the nation for the average number each year only because of its size.

Is Tornado Alley shifting east? ›

'Tornado Alley' Has Shifted East From The Plains, A New Study Says.

Convective SIGMETs are issued for severe convective activity, which implies severe turbulence, severe icing, and low-level wind shear. Specifically: Embedded thunderstorms. A line of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms with heavy precipitation affecting 40%+ of an area at least 3,000 square miles.

The Convective Outlook defines areas of slight risk (SLGT), moderate risk (MDT) or high risk (HIGH) of severe thunderstorms for a 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC.

You are better off staying at home or completely diverting at least 20 NM around it. Outlook SIGMETs can contain just as much dangerous weather. Give yourself plenty of room to go around these storm fronts. You also need to make sure you know which direction the storms move.

A Convective Outlook (AC) delineates areas forecast to have thunderstorms (convective activity)