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Mid-August is projection time for Illini football, so here it is.
According to Big Ten analyst and former Illinois All-American linebacker J Leman, whose perspective carries current and past understanding, it’ll likely take 30 points per game for Illinois to attain ultimate success in 2024.
OK, there’s the challenge. Give or take a few points, something like 30 will probably be needed.
The Illini averaged 24.5 points in a 5-7 campaign last year, after the 2022 club doubled opponents, 24.2 to 12.8, in an 8-5 campaign spearheaded by one of the UI’s great defenses ... multiple NFL players in the line and in the secondary.
As we approach the Thursday night opener against Eastern Illinois on Aug. 29, it’s an absolute necessity for the offense to take over the load.
Adding it up
Thirty points? Last season, 47 of 135 Division 1 schools reached the 30 mark (35 percent), ranging from LSU at 45.5 points down to Iowa at 15.5.
Yep, the Hawkeyes were almost 10 points (per game) shy of retaining offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz.
Nor have the Illini been one of the nation’s perennially high scoring teams. For one thing, there has been too much turnover in the men running this attack. Since Mike Locksley’s four-year run (2005-08), they have employed 10 coordinators.
Presently, Barry Lunney Jr. has settled in and is entering his third season under Bret Bielema.
Last to reach 30 points per game was the 7-6 club directed offensively by Paul Petrino in 2010.
So, for the Illini, 30 is a long reach. In 40 years, they attained that number four times. Mike White’s 1983 champions just missed with 29.7, thanks to a paltry nine-point output against UCLA in the Rose Bowl. There were no other 30-point seasons back to 1914.
History lesson
So, how does the offense stack up?
Quarterback is critical and looking good. Lunney is counting on the maturity of a fourth-year college student in Luke Altmyer, an Ole Miss transfer heading into his second season in the Lunney system.
Looking back, of 14 starting quarterbacks who returned for their second season with the Illini, dating to Mike Wells in 1970-71, a dozen passed for more yards in their second year. Everybody improves with experience if they stay healthy.
Injuries explain why Brandon Peters was limited to 39 completions in 2020, and why Jon Beutjer slipped in 2003.
So look for Altmyer to improve on his numbers: 175 of 270 passes, 1,883 yards, 10 interceptions and 13 touchdowns from a year ago.
Big boys up frontCounting game effort on other campuses, the number of varsity starts on offense is exceptional. And this attacking unit is extremely large, with a hopeful NFL pick at left tackle in J.C. Davis, and huge veterans at every position.
Two mobile fullback types lead the running backs, Kadin Feagin (250 pounds) and Josh McCray (235 pounds). Challenging for time are spring standout Aidan Loughery (200 pounds) and freshman Ca’Lil Valentine.
All three of the veteran ball carriers appear healthy after consecutive seasons in which all three have been hampered (counting Feagin during his high school career at Arthur-Lovington-Atwood-Hammond). Obviously, past injuries at such a collision position are a continuing concern, and create the likelihood that Bielema won’t overuse any ball carriers early.
The line is set with center Josh Kreutz expected back after a minor knee injury last week. The other top six offensive lineman average 326 pounds. That’s 326! The roster shows 16 offensive linemen over 300. And, unlike last year, none of the starters is currently asked to play out of position.
Which receivers emerge alongside veteran Pat Bryant will soon be apparent. Zakhari Franklin caught passes for 3,348 yards and 37 TDs in four seasons at Texas San Antonio, and he drew praise from Bielema after Saturday’s scrimmage. Malik Elzy’s potential raises eyebrows, as do the quick moves of junior college transfer Mario Sanders and sophom*ore Kenari Wilcher.
Tight end became a concern when Murray State transfer Cole Rusk required knee surgery. In his stead, sophom*ore Henry Boyer (6-6, 270) and Tanner Arkin (6-4, 265), a second-year transfer from Colorado State, appear set to share the position.
In conclusion
These Illini are big enough and tough enough everywhere on offense, but lost their best tight end-receiver. Recent history indicates they won’t have the Oregon-style breakaway speed to average 30 points against this schedule.
That said, Bielema has been lavish in his praise for overall summer improvement, most notably in mentioning Altmyer (a must to stay healthy), Bryant, Franklin, Arkin, Davis and overall line depth. This is a promising unit, but may need their counterparts on defense to perform better than anticipated.
